FAQ
Q: What is this site about?
A: Trying to make money investing in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).
Q: What is an Exchange Traded Fund?
A: An Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), also known as an Exchange Traded Product (ETP), is an investment fund traded on stock exchanges, much like stocks. An ETF holds assets such as stocks, commodities, bonds and trades at approximately the same price as the net asset value of its underlying assets over the course of the trading day.
Q: Do you predict the future here?
A: We try to guess what asset, traded by an ETF, will be in demand in future and take a position in that asset. This hasn't a 100% accuracy but feels like has better than 55% chance to predict the future and as a result to generate money. We just try to have a statistically edge and beat the indexes.
Q: What is this: Surfr™ Trading System?
A: A collection of strategies that we feel have some hope in guessing, better than random, the future raising asset.
Q: How can I make money using the information posted on this site?
A: Each weekend we update the site with new data. You should go to the Signals tab and see if your chosen strategy had generated a new signal. If it is one you should buy that asset listed there ASAP.
Q: If the signal is old or I miss 2..3 days what should I do?
A: Our signals lasts in average between 2..6 months so a couple of days delays or even weeks should not be that important. You should use your own judgment if you'll take or not the trade.
Q: What strategies should I follow?
A: Are many strategies here and we like them all. However the best should be to try to diversify yourself holding 2..3 strategies as different as possible using different integration rules and different turnovers. Don't be influenced only by yearly CAGR are many other metrics to assess the quality of a system. You should study more about computed metrics here: About Statistical Data.
Q: Should I invest all my money in Surfr strategies?
A: All our strategies are largely momentum with days to years outlook. If you decide to use some of the strategies presented here you should invest your money in more than one investing technique not only momentum one. A scenario could be: 2..3 Surfr Strategies with 20%-25% of your money for each and the rest a value strategy. This could offer some protection for times when the asset(s) held crashes and an orthogonal asset (held by a value strategy, for example) soars.
Q: Where can I find the trading history for each strategy?
A: We do not make this information public.
Q: What period of time did you use to train the systems?
A: Largely 01/01/2003 through 01/01/2010. After that the systems are deciding by themselves.
Q: If the systems' training started in 01/01/2003 why do you perform the statistics and charts from 2006?
A: 01/01/2003 - 01/01/2006 is largely uneventful and are very few broadly diversified asset classes represented by ETFs, these two facts can lead to misleadingly good results. A good system will solve gracefully 01/01/2008 - 01/01/2011 market movement that is way more challenging.
Q: When did you start making public these systems?
A: We start posting the signals around June 1st 2010.
Q: Are this systems mechanical traded or discretionary?
A: All systems are 100% mechanical. No human intervention is used and all the technical data posted on this site is 100% computer generated.
Q: What software did you use for this or that?
A: We used many products to pull out this site. U can find more information here: We use....
Q: Do you use any individual stocks in any of your strategies?
A: 1..2 systems uses Leucadia National Corp (LUK) and 1..2 systems Penn West Energy Trust (PWE). In general we try to avoid individual stocks and probable in future we will replace these systems with systems that don't have any individual stocks.
Q: Do you use any leveraged ETFs?
A: 1..2 systems uses Ultra Technology ProShares (ROM). In general we try to avoid leveraged ETFs and probable in future we will replace these systems with systems that don't have leveraged ETFs.
Q: What kind of returns should I expect if I follow this or that system?
We don't promise anything. We just present on this site the results of our work that we feel have some investment grade value. You should read the Warning section carefully.
Q: How many assets hold each strategy?
A: Each strategy holds always one asset or cash.
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